Ferrotype

£7bn 363 colleges 4.2m learners 263,257 staff

16-19s at a peak this year, and will now decline steadily

It is never easy to get figures for the numbers of young people, but here are two snapshots from the Office for National Statistics [and with my thanks to Tom Morrison, Regional Observatory Manager, East of England Development Agency for his help with navigation]

17 yr olds in England to 2019. Source data and graph from the File Box in sidebar

First : the number of young people was at a peak in 2009, and will fall steadily in every year starting from 2010 until 2019.

Second: the number of young people year by year across England and Wales will fall by 15% over the next 10 years.

Year 17 year olds In England & Wales, a 15% drop in the number of 17 year olds by the end of the period.
By 2013, the drop will have been 8%
2009 706,500
2011 672,900
2013 655,100
2015 642,400
2017 625,300 Data from Office for National Statistics http://www.statistics.gov.uk
2019 600,900

Then, looking only at English Regions, the nearest useful figures are for the 15-19 age group.

Young People in English Regions to 2019. Source data in File Box in sidebar

Region 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 drop 2009-2019
East 357.6 352.2 348.3 341.2 331.9 332.4 7%
London 427.1 414.5 406.8 398.3 388.7 395.7 7%
South East 541.8 527.9 517.0 506.1 491.0 489.2 10%
South West 335.0 326.9 322.4 316.3 305.6 302.4 10%
England 3298.4 3195.0 3117.9 3038.7 2935.6 2928.7 11%
East Midlands 295.5 285.9 278.6 271.5 262.8 261.6 11%
West Midlands 358.2 344.5 336.4 328.1 315.7 314.3 12%
Yorks and Humber 352.2 341.0 330.8 320.3 307.6 305.9 13%
North West 461.9 440.0 422.3 408.1 391.0 387.6 16%
North East 169.0 162.1 155.2 148.8 141.3 139.6 17
Data: Office for National Statistics: 2006-based subnational population projections

Third: Over England as a whole, there will be 11% fewer 15-19s

Fourth: Even in London, there will be a steady drop in the number of young people, though at 7% it is less than the all-England figure of 11%.
Across the North, the drop is greater than 15%.

A glib, facile and superficial response to the figures would be that a major smart cut is now easy to imagine, and we can feed a projected 15% reduced spend in the FE budget  into the savings which will help reduce the national financial deficit.

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January 7, 2010 - Posted by | Numbers of young people | , ,

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